Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 13.930129 17.013420 20.439699 24.504512 29.169458 34.329919 40.443490
2025-10-26 9.700301 13.721906 18.684131 25.145329 33.216899 42.846218 55.071331
2025-11-02 7.002540 11.217070 16.883424 24.816529 35.373035 48.665767 66.367792
2025-11-09 5.380279 9.629969 15.785501 24.940040 37.756036 54.587699 77.831070
2025-11-16 4.162641 8.294372 14.713932 24.799269 39.563627 59.667947 88.291524
2025-11-23 3.149830 7.011770 13.450768 24.120083 40.412740 63.351272 96.927231
2025-11-30 2.643842 6.466109 13.222311 24.906158 43.347634 69.985926 109.802963
2025-12-07 2.066421 5.629252 12.351636 24.528944 44.435266 73.968844 119.075685
2025-12-14 1.692675 5.097043 11.911442 24.769446 46.432571 79.308661 130.434008
2025-12-21 1.245213 4.259083 10.748738 23.607801 46.053327 81.018551 136.521632
2025-12-28 1.055775 3.976775 10.613540 24.232285 48.600947 87.253153 149.476077
2026-01-04 0.871994 3.646612 10.318937 24.513708 50.560154 92.627128 161.297472
2026-01-11 0.710081 3.336663 10.053553 24.898245 52.857818 98.859163 175.022579
2026-01-18 0.592138 3.116131 9.955968 25.611553 55.802669 106.304555 190.974294
2026-01-25 0.447452 2.729668 9.383339 25.282182 56.827247 110.644100 202.216432
2026-02-01 0.351449 2.465659 9.053913 25.407755 58.668254 116.379989 215.823909
2026-02-08 0.267001 2.190509 8.629857 25.264958 59.970099 121.234151 228.148895
2026-02-15 0.188316 1.872102 8.002717 24.575879 60.148666 124.147387 237.395996
2026-02-22 0.157412 1.780699 8.019617 25.373400 63.281719 132.278208 255.403831
2026-03-01 0.112660 1.556338 7.567456 24.990704 64.013952 136.210564 266.575726
2026-03-08 0.086623 1.425177 7.382197 25.234704 66.024327 142.469271 281.788170
2026-03-15 0.052818 1.166925 6.676085 24.056092 64.980018 143.169801 287.635864
2026-03-22 0.042101 1.103800 6.664080 24.689721 67.806251 151.009984 305.825354